Canada's economic performance has fallen further behind that of the U.S. over the past quarter century, with the gap in GDP per person more than doubling and the Americans pulling ahead on incomes, employment, investment and productivity.
That's according to a new study published by the Fraser Institute, which found that, in 1999, inflation-adjusted GDP per person in Canada was $48,076, while in the U.S. it was $58,842. By 2024, GDP per person had grown to $83,286 in the U.S. compared to just $59,529 in Canada — meaning the gap had widened from $10,766 to $23,757 over 25 years.
The study compared economic outcomes in the two countries by looking at measures including living standards, incomes, employment, investment, and productivity. In every category, Canada has fallen further behind over the first quarter of the century, it found.
For example, in 2010 (the earliest year of comparable data), inflation-adjusted median employment income was $6,126 higher in the U.S. than in Canada. By 2024, that gap had increased to $8,663.
"When comparing the economic performance of Canada relative to the U.S. since the beginning of the 21st century, it's abundantly clear that Canadian policymakers have failed to create an environment where we can prosper," said Jake Fuss, director of fiscal studies at the Fraser Institute, in a news release.
He added that the ability to transform raw materials and other inputs into demanded goods and services increased by more than double the amount (26.7 per cent versus 67.9 per cent) in the U.S. compared to Canada, "which explains much of our languishing living standards."
The Fraser Institute outlines three factors that explain the widening gap in economic performance between the two countries.
The first is a decline in private sector employment as a share of total employment in Canada. This decreased from 81.2 per cent to 78.5 per cent, meaning the government sector outgrew the private sector. The opposite occurred in the U.S., as private sector employment increased from 85.8 per cent of total employment to 86.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, labour productivity — a key driver of income growth — in the U.S. grew by 67.9 per cent between 1999 and 2025 compared to a 26.7 per cent increase in Canada during the same period.
Finally, business investment in Canada — which equips workers with the tools and technology they need to produce goods and services — dropped from nearly 90 cents per worker for every dollar invested in the U.S. to 54 cents between 2007 and 2024.
The tariffs and counter-tariffs have hit some states and provinces harder than others.
In Canada, some provinces have been more exposed to US sectoral tariffs on steel, steel derivatives, aluminium, and autos and vehicle parts that don't comply with the current North American trade deal, known as the USMCA.
Ontario, the most populous province with a significant manufacturing sector, has been hardest hit by the auto and steel tariffs.
Several Ontario auto parts and assembly plants have announced layoffs and production cuts, and the province is estimated to have lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs since early 2025.
Metal exports from Quebec - which produces steel, copper and aluminium - fell 36% between February 2025 and 2026, and there was a 3.6% drop in employment in the sector, according to data released in July.
The Royal Bank of Canada estimates that Ontario and Quebec are the most impacted by US sectoral tariffs, while Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Prince Edward Island are the least exposed.
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What the Canadians don't seem to realize is that as they point and yell at US, Lutnick, Bessent and others are quietly shifting purchasing patterns, investment opportunities, and distribution channels to counter an impending decrease in trade with Canada. The US has been focused… pic.twitter.com/inLRVFLiVe
— Metal Nana (@Inadvertantview) August 29, 2026
Canada’s M2 just hit $2.83 trillion.
— Erik Thorvaldsson (@erik_thorvalds) August 29, 2026
That’s nearly 6× what it was in 2000.
They didn’t create six times more oil, six times more lumber, or six times more food.
They created six times more dollars.
Your wages didn’t 6×.
Your grocery bill did.
Your house payment did.
Your kids’… pic.twitter.com/FVyGbSE1kx
I lived in Canada for 30 years.
— bald liberty (@freedombunkr) August 28, 2026
The day before I left, my income tax rate was 60% of my paycheck
The day I arrived, my income tax rate dropped to 30% of my paycheck.
The day I got a mortgage, it dropped to 9% of my paycheck.
Even with health care costs, I have way more money…
๐จPM Carney talks tough on USA ๐บ๐ธ, flirts with China ๐จ๐ณ ..but the money tells the truth.
— wealthmoose (@wealthmoose) March 27, 2026
Out of @MarkJCarney ‘s 583 holdings:
• ๐บ๐ธ 91%
• ๐จ๐ฆ 0.5%
Carney’s wealth stays safely in America.
Canadians get a 35% tariff.
Say ๐จ๐ฆ
Invest in ๐บ๐ธ
That’s not leadership.
That’s the… pic.twitter.com/zgwxcsv2CP
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๐จWells Fargo: Canada's Steel Retaliation "๐๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐น๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐!"
— Vesper (@vesperdigital) September 1, 2026
Carney's counter-tariffs, per a Wells Fargo analyst on air: "it's pretty irrelevant. It's very much for show."
Canadian prices already rose. Washington won't feel a thing.
But Canadians will.
๐คฆ♂️ pic.twitter.com/B1kbImsraj
Now, according to Axios, Washington is discussing an ownership stake in more than a dozen producing Venezuelan oilfields containing an estimated 90 billion barrels of proven reserves. Canada can’t say it was not warned this could happen in advance.
“Calling this deal huge would be an understatement,” one U.S. official told Axios. “It is massive.”
The agreement has not been finalized, and its precise ownership, operating and revenue arrangements remain under negotiation. Nevertheless, its potential scale should command the immediate attention of Prime Minister Mark Carney and every Canadian policymaker responsible for energy and economic development.
This is not simply another foreign oil project. Venezuela holds approximately 300 billion barrels of proven reserves, the largest reported total in the world. Much of that resource is heavy crude capable of competing directly with barrels from Canada’s oil sands.
If American capital, technology and political power are mobilized to restore Venezuelan production, Canada could eventually face much stronger competition inside the U.S. refining market upon which it remains heavily dependent.
Joseph McLuckie can’t count the number of sleepless nights he has had ever since the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) determined about three months ago that his small business owes more than $180,000 in tariffs on a more-than-a-year-old shipment.
McLuckie is the managing director and owner of JPSM Golf, a small business based out of Pickering, Ont., that sells electric golf trolleys. These trolleys carry golfers’ bags throughout the course as they play.
JPSM Golf has been operational for the last 20 years, starting off in the basement of McLuckie’s home in Leaside before it moved to its 9,000-square-foot storefront.
Instead of celebrating his company’s 20th anniversary, McLuckie is agonizing whether he will be able to pay all six of his long-term employees should he have to pay the $182,883.95 the CBSA says he owes.
“You wake up in the middle of the night, you have a random thought, and it keeps you awake for a couple of hours, because I know if I had to pay this tomorrow, I’m out of cash,” McLuckie said in an interview with CTV News Toronto.
The shipment in question was delivered to JPSM Golf from China in April 2025. It was a 40-foot container filled with 330 Formula remote trolleys, a brand McLuckie’s company designed and developed on their own.
It's like it pays to produce stuff in Canada.
I found hospitals in Seoul, South Korea, to be sanitary and well-equipped. There was almost no waiting period when I went to an emergency room and even minor sprains or other problems got immediate attention. Despite my basic level of health insurance in Korea, I paid very little for an overnight stay in a private double room in the 2000s.
In the last 20 years, my wife and I have continued to travel to places like Korea, Singapore and Malaysia, and while we haven’t been in hospitals overnight, we’ve been able to get amazing and affordable care in Asia.
Given the taxes we pay in Canada, I’m still having a hard time believing that the only hospital where I was forced to sleep in a hallway was in Saskatoon.
I’m grateful for the care I received from the doctors and nurses who took care of me, but I also felt sorry for them. Most of the team had been working for hours. I had seen many of the same faces for over 10 hours. They looked exhausted. It’s not a stretch to say they were being pushed to their limits in a broken health-care system.
Even after leaving the hospital, the delays have continued as I'm once again in a different kind of hallway: a long waiting list to get a basic test completed. Nurses and nurse practitioners have made calls and tried to get information on how long it will take for me to see a specialist, but the list seems to be the list. I still face a two to three month wait to get further testing done.
This is worse than hurry up and wait. It’s simply wait and pay high taxes that aren’t consistent with the level of care.
I'm appalled that the only place I was ever warehoused in a hospital hallway was in my own country and the city in which I grew up.
Canada just spent half a billion dollars poaching 64 academics, three-quarters of them from the U.S., and then CTV put the most revealing quote on TV
— cbcwatcher (@cbcwatcher) August 30, 2026
Talia Bettcher (trans philosophy / gender studies) is leaving Cal State LA for a taxpayer-funded chair at Waterloo because, in… pic.twitter.com/CqN1PjoPU5
