It's Just An Economy

This is winning, right?:

Mark Carney spent the weekend telling Canadians to check their bank accounts. He said more than 12 million people would get the next Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit payment. Earlier, he called it a boost of up to $1,890 this year to help families with essentials while the country waits for the payoffs of “building big.”

He may as well be celebrating increased food bank use while his government continues to bungle the management of Canada’s economy.

Sit with that number. Canada has about 41 million people. Twelve million is not a fringe, and it is not “some households having a hard month.” It is approaching three-in-ten Canadians receiving a government deposit whose purpose is to help them buy groceries and cover basic bills. Ottawa’s promotion of this benefit constitutes a formal acknowledgement.

A payment that exists so people can afford food is not growth. It is a transfer. The money is taxed out of paycheques, borrowed against future paycheques, or both, then sent back to a list of recipients the same government drew up. Calling it a benefit does not change the direction. A larger share of private income is being collected and handed back, with Ottawa deciding who qualifies and how much is enough to get through the till at the grocery store. This trend can only lead somewhere bad.

If the economy were producing rising real incomes, you would not need an essentials payment covering a population more than twice the size of Alberta. The cheque is the evidence that prices for food, housing, and energy have outrun take-home pay for a wide band of households and that the response has been to widen the transfer instead of addressing the cause. Government gets bigger. The administrative state gets another program to run, another eligibility rule, and another deposit to announce. Disposable income, after tax and after the cost of necessities, does not get bigger. The payment is then held up as proof that someone is helping. They reach into your wallet, take out some cash, and then hand a small portion of it back to you and expect gratitude.

(Sidebar: or being bribed with your money.) 

This is how a welfare state actually expands. Not with one vote to replace work with benefits, but with a run of “temporary” top-ups that become recurring deposits. Each one is justified by the cost of living the last round of policy helped produce. Housing stays scarce. Energy and food stay expensive. Taxes and deficits stay high enough that wages never quite pull ahead of the bills. Then a new payment lands and politicians pat themselves on the back. No future politician will find the courage to cut these transfers, which will quickly become entitlements in the eyes of recipients.

The political incentive only runs one way. A deposit in millions of accounts can be photographed and cheered as a success. The government’s inaction on developing the economy remains in the background. Carney’s own wording gives it away. The big projects will take time, so here is money now. The projects don’t need more time. They need leadership with the political courage to get things done. Increasing welfare dependency doesn’t lead to a stronger economy. It compounds the problem. Dependence gets rebranded as a boost, and the number of people who need the boost becomes the achievement.

The figure worth arguing about is not how many Canadians received the payment. It is how many needed a government cheque to cover groceries in the first place. Celebrating the deposit treats the symptom as the solution. The country is not being lifted. It is being managed, one essentials payment at a time, while the share of Canadians who cannot cover the basics without Ottawa keeps growing.

Canada is on a cycle spiralling to the bottom. As the share of Canadians either employed by the government or dependent on government transfers grows, the ability of the productive to keep up is reduced. Professionals and enterprising individuals either stop producing or leave the country for greener pastures. It’s an unsustainable trend, but as long as people applaud the smiling face of the prime minister while he gifts them a portion of their own money, the trend won’t be changing. It’s too politically valuable for the establishment politicians and legacy media outlets who depend on them to shake the status quo. Better to continually play Santa Claus on the credit cards of the next generation than to make hard decisions today.

** 

Prime Minister Mark Carney has said that lower immigration under his government helps to explain why Canada’s economy has declined for the last two quarters, pushing it into recession territory.

While Carney has not said the word “recession” himself when asked about the decline — and while economists citing broader economic indicators argue Canada is not in a true recession — critics have said that years of high immigration intake served to conceal the extent of Canada’s economic troubles.

Those critics include Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner, who posted on social media Tuesday that “mass rapid intake of low-skilled temporary foreign labour both masked and juiced structural economic issues.”

“It’s a basic fact, it’s one of several factors, but the underlying point is we’re putting in place the foundations a stronger, more resilient, more independent Canadian economy. You can do the math, you should do the math, in terms of declining population growth as an impact,” Carney said in response to that criticism.

Nathan Janzen is a Royal Bank of Canada economist who has done the math. He said high population growth, driven by immigration, contributed to a higher gross domestic product despite household economic challenges.

 

Now, about that:

Canada’s real gross domestic product remained flat in July following three months of expansion, an early sign that economic growth may have slowed in the third quarter following a second-quarter rebound.

Gains in construction, 1.3 per cent, and utilities, 1.7 per cent, were offset by decreases in the manufacturing and mining sectors in July, as well as quarrying and oil and gas extraction — which contracted by 0.9 per cent and 0.5 per cent month over month, respectively. Contractions in retail and wholesale trade also offset some increases in services-producing industries, weighing on economic growth.

Flash estimates suggest the economy expanded by 0.2 per cent in August, led by increases in mining and quarrying as well as retail trade that were partially offset by decreases in oil and gas extraction.

“The numbers are a mixed bag, and there’s a lot of things happening under the hood when you look at the monthly GDP numbers. It took a break in July, but it was in line with what’s going on,” said LJ Valencia, an economist with Desjardins.

“The weakness was pretty broadbased, but it was offset by some of the strength that we’re seeing.”

Economists largely expect growth to slow in the third quarter of 2026 due to economic uncertainty from escalating trade tensions with the United States, after the economy rebounded and grew by 3.3 per cent on an annualized basis in the second quarter.

Deloitte Canada’s latest economic outlook suggests the recent levies are expected to sharply weaken growth in the final quarter of 2026 and into early 2027. Forecast tables predict the Canadian economy will expand by 0.9 per cent on an annualized basis in 2026 and by 1.6 per cent in 2027.

Household and business confidence will also remain subdued due to the persistent threat of tariffs and additional trade measures, the report said.

“The past monetary tightening cycle and successive rounds of trade tensions have taken a toll on the Canadian economy. The most prominent weak spot in our economy continues to be business non-residential investment,” wrote Dawn Desjardins, Deloitte Canada’s chief economist.

 

 So there's that.

 

 

 

Now, To the BC Elections

British Columbia Premier David Eby will resume ruining BC because not one voter cares to stop him:

In a Sunday election pledge, B.C. NDP Leader David Eby proposed a new tax policy that would give his province one of the highest marginal tax rates on earth.

If implemented, the top marginal tax rate in B.C. would hit 57.5 per cent, meaning that 57.5 cents out of every dollar earned above a certain threshold in B.C. would be collected as tax.

It wouldn’t just make B.C. the highest tax jurisdiction in Canada, but it would place British Columbians in a higher tax bracket than even some of the most notoriously high tax corners of Europe.

According to the most recent figures from the OECD, top-earning British Columbians would be paying a higher tax on income than their well-paid peers in France (55.4 per cent), Japan (55.9 per cent), Sweden (52.4 per cent) and the U.K. (45 per cent). 

In fact, they’d likely be paying more of their income in tax than any other jurisdiction save Denmark. Although Denmark’s top rate comes in at 55.9 per cent in OECD data, in practice, the Danish rate can rise as high as 60.5 per cent, according to a June analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

B.C.’s top tax rate would also push well ahead of California, the single most high-tax jurisdiction in the United States. According to the U.S.-based Tax Foundation, Californians pay a top income tax rate of 13.3 per cent. Which, when combined with a federal top rate of 37 per cent, comes to 50.3.

The new tax rate was pitched by Eby on Sunday as a “millionaire’s tax,” as the new top rate of 24.5 per cent or more only applies to annual incomes of $1 million or more.

This would be added to the top federal rate of 33 per cent (which kicks in for incomes higher than $258,482) for a total of 57.5 per cent.

Nevertheless, Eby would also be raising taxes for non-millionaires. Any income above $190,405 would be taxed at 18.8 per cent instead of 16.8 per cent, and any income above $265,545 would be taxed at 22.5 per cent instead of 20.5 per cent.

As such, any British Columbian earning more than $266,000 would already be experiencing a combined rate of income tax (55.5 per cent) higher than almost anywhere else on earth.

In a Monday social media post, University of Calgary economist said the new rates “would raise BC to the highest income tax rate since 1981, and make the province (by a decent margin) the highest tax rate jurisdiction in Canada.”

He noted that the new tax threshold would put B.C. at particular contrast to next-door Alberta, whose top marginal rate sits around 48 per cent.

Wrote Tombe, “the gap with Alberta would be back at 1990s levels.”

Eby said the measure would bring in $1 billion in new revenue, which he pledged to spend on “improvements in health care and to lower costs for British Columbians.”

Although, $1 billion is still just a fraction of the $13.8 billion annual deficit that B.C. was running just before Eby called a snap election on Sept. 22.  

Eby said his new tax would not apply to the “96 per cent” of British Columbians making less than $190,405 per year.

Although, as noted by B.C. journalist Bob Mackin, the threshold for the new taxes also just so happens to kick in right above the annual salaries paid to B.C. cabinet ministers, which top out around $183,000 per year.

The B.C. Conservatives, meanwhile, have dubbed the new tax scheme a “doctor’s tax,” as it will kick in right around the annual salaries earned by physicians, which Eby’s government has simultaneously been attempting to attract to B.C.

** 

“Nobody but David Eby wants this B.C. Election” – “It’snaked opportunism, without the dignity or even gesturing towards subtlety,”reports Kirk Lapointe in The Hub on September 22, 2026.

However, this election presents a critical opportunity for voters to examine the issues highlighted that same day in The Bureau’s report, “Public Safety documents flag intelligence, military base and supply chain risks in BC Ferries China deal.” That report brings necessary attention to Premier Eby’s handling of foreign interference and its impact on British Columbia’s political process.

Firstly, of major relevance is the 2022 Cullen Commission report focused on networks of transnational organized crime and money laundering, networks linked to foreign interference, including election meddling, according to The Bureau's reporting.

Gordon Hoekstra of The Vancouver Sun reported on December 9, 2024, that Premier Eby had delayed or sidelined two of the most significant structural changes requested by Commissioner Austin Cullen:

    An Independent Anti-Money Laundering Commissioner: Recommended to act as an independent legislative “czar” to provide strategic oversight, conduct research, and keep the public informed on B.C.’s anti-money laundering mandate.

    A Dedicated Provincial Intelligence and Investigation Unit: Recommended to bypass perceived federal enforcement gaps (such as shortfalls within FINTRAC and the RCMP) by introducing a specialized provincial policing unit focused strictly on illicit financial flows.

The conscious avoidance by Premier Eby of implementing the two major recommendations in the Cullen Report is a breach of his duty to the citizens of B.C. and enables foreign interference to undermine our liberal democracy, impacting government transparency and accountability and the rule of law.

Secondly, Premier Eby’s complete failure to protect British Columbians from foreign interference arose when BC Ferries awarded a contract to China’s Weihai Shipyards (CMI Weihai) to build four new Summit-class hybrid-electric vessels. This contract was backed by a $1 billion low-interest loan from the Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB). The deal has triggered intense political backlash, including concerns over lobbying, and has caused parliamentary committee investigations.

The federal government’s Public Safety Records Assessment of the controversial BC Ferries contract with a Chinese state-owned shipyard identified potential risks to Canadian supply chains. The assessment flagged the proximity of ferry routes to sensitive military and intelligence infrastructure — including a Signals Intelligence facility in Haida Gwaii and the country’s main naval base in Victoria.

Rob Shaw reported on August 12, 2025, in Business in Vancouver that Davie Shipyard, the oldest and highest-capacity shipyard in the country, located in Quebec, criticized BC Ferries for a flawed procurement process. The company said the contract was tilted from the start to award new ship construction contracts to the government of China. Davie Shipyard stated BC Ferries never gave Canadian builders a real chance at competing for the billion-dollar contract to build four new large ships.

A 2026 report by the Centre for Future Work estimated that the offshore build will result in roughly $1.5 billion in lost Canadian economic activity (GDP) and 10,000 missed job-years. This lost revenue is profoundly disquieting in light of the September 18, 2026, National Post reporting that in his tenure so far, Premier David Eby has presided over the fastest rate of debt accumulation in the province’s history. Total B.C. debt stood at $89.4 billion on Eby’s first day in office and is now projected to reach $180 billion by 2027.

Critics of BC Ferries’ $1.5 billion contract with CMI Weihai question the involvement of Dominic Barton, former McKinsey & Company global managing director and former Canadian Ambassador to China. Mr. Barton helped develop the CIB, resulting in ongoing debates in parliamentary committees over Barton’s corporate influence networks and McKinsey’s advisory ties to Chinese state-owned enterprises. Prime Minister Mark Carney recently appointed Barton to chair the board of Invest in Canada, which connects multinational corporations to opportunities to grow, expand and succeed in Canada.

Section 2(1)(f) of the B.C. Lobbyists Transparency Act excludes communications between the Government of British Columbia and representatives of international governments such as China.

B.C. voters would like to know who was lobbying whom when BC Ferries awarded a $1.5 billion contract to CMI Weihai, which would support state-owned Chinese shipyards tied to Beijing’s industrial-military framework. Premier Eby’s profound lack of government transparency and accountability over lobbying by China, or its proxies, of BC Ferries raises legitimate questions.

The benefits that authentic liberal democracies confer on their citizens are substantial. These include individual rights, separation of powers, economic opportunity and equality, government transparency and accountability, rule of law and self-critique.

 Premier Eby’s wilful blindness to the alleged impact of corrupt foreign interference as detailed in the Cullen Report and the secretive process of awarding a $1.5 billion contract to CMI Weihai has resulted in a dysfunctional democracy in B.C.