What Happens When Canada Lowers the Bar

It's all very well and good to point out that China has been smuggling out viruses from foreign labs, that the current catastrophe originated in Wuhan, China and, despite the bribed press' best efforts, nothing from China can be believed but it wouldn't be fair to place the blame for the failure of the Canadian economy and the stoppage of normal life of the average citizen.

The Canadian government helped, too.


Below is a timeline of all the lies, obfuscation, colossal errors, moral failings and current body count in a country that still doesn't get it.

It's not "fake news" or hyperbole. Below is a well-documented record for the reasons why this crisis will last when other countries have recovered:

1.   A feared shortage of pandemic supplies comes nine years after federal auditors specifically warned the Public Health Agency to stock up. A 2011 audit noted the Agency spent nearly twice as much leasing warehouse space than it did buying needed supplies: ‘It is an insurance policy.’

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2. Timeline from December to the end of January:

Dec. 30, 2019: Doctor Li Wenliang a message to a group of fellow doctors warning them about a possible outbreak of an illness that resembled severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, where he worked, reports The Lancet. Meant to be a private message, he encouraged them to protect themselves from infection.

Dec. 31, 2019: Taiwanese officials, on guard against an outbreak of strange pneumonia cases in China, board and inspect passengers coming into Taiwan, looking for fever or pneumonia symptoms on direct flights from Wuhan.

December 31: The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission declares, “The investigation so far has not found any obvious human-to-human transmission and no medical staff infection.” This is the opposite of the belief of the doctors working on patients in Wuhan, and two doctors were already suspected of contracting the virus, reports Jim Geraghty of The National Review.

Jan 1, 2020: Doctor Li Wenliang was summoned to the Public Security Bureau in Wuhan, The Lancet reports, and was made to sign a statement in which he was accused of making false statements that disturbed the public order.

Jan. 3, 2020: The WHO issues public warnings over Twitter: “China has reported to WHO regarding a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province …Chinahas extensive capacity to respond to public health events and is responding proactively & rapidly to the current incident in Wuhan — isolating patients, tracing close contacts, cleaning up the market, and searching for the cause and for additional cases.”

Jan. 3, 2020. Caixin Global, which reports business and financial news from China, reported that “China’s National Health Commission (NHC), the nation’s top health authority, ordered institutions not to publish any information related to the unknown disease, and ordered labs to transfer any samples they had to designated testing institutions, or to destroy them.”

Jan 5: The Taiwan Centre for Disease Control is now notified if passengers from Wuhan have fever or other symptoms.

Jan. 7: China confirms it has a new disease, now known as COVID-19, then called coronavirus.

Jan. 9: The WHO issues travel guidelines, urging restraint: “WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travellers. WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the current information available … According to Chinese authorities, the virus in question can cause severe illness in some patients and does not transmit readily between people.”

Jan. 11:Dr.Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, secretary-general of the WHO, tweets: “I sincerely thank all the Chinese scientists and health workers who have been working around the clock, for their commitment to keeping China and the world safe.”

Jan 15: The World Health Organization tweets: “According to the latest information we have, there is no clear evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission and there are no infections reported among health care workers.”

Jan. 21: In Taiwan, Wuhan is given a Level 3 travel alert designation, changing border procedures from Taiwan, Wang reports, which changed customs procedures at Taiwanese airports. “Persons with low risk (no travel to level 3 alert areas) were sent a health declaration border pass via SMS (short message service) messaging to their phones for faster immigration clearance; those with higher risk (recent travel to level 3 alert areas) were quarantined at home (for 14 days) and tracked through their mobile phone to ensure that they remained at home during the incubation period.”

Jan. 22: Canada implements screening requirements related to COVID-19 for travellers returning from China to major airports in Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver. Passengers with symptoms are to be alerted that they should go into voluntary isolation for 14 days, with voluntary self-isolation essentially being the Canadian policy for the next two months.

Jan. 22: In Taiwan, entry permits are canceled for 459 tourists from Wuhan set to arrive later in January. One day later, Wuhan residents are banned from Taiwan.

Jan. 24: The World Health Organization again advises against travel bans: “WHO advises against the application of any restrictions of international traffic based on the information currently available on this event.” At the same time, the WHO says early screening at airports had identified the majority of cases in newly infected counties. “The risk of importation of the disease may be reduced if temperature screening at entry is associated with early detection of symptomatic passengers and their referral for medical follow up.”

Jan 25: Canada confirms its first case of COVID-19 related to travel in Wuhan, China.

Jan 25: In Taiwan, tours to China are suspended. Hubei Province is given Level 3 travel alert status, with the rest of China a Level 2 travel alert.

Jan 25: federal Liberal Health Minister Patty Hajdu says of Canada’s border controls: “Measures to mitigate the risk of introduction and spread of diseases like the new coronavirus in Canada are in place, including messaging on arrival screens at the Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver international airports reminding travellers to inform a Border Services Officer if they are experiencing flu-like symptoms, and an additional health screening question on electronic kiosks used by international travellers.”

Jan. 26.  China restricts all non-essential travel to and from Wuhan, essentially putting 50 million people into quarantine. Canada advises against “non-essential travel” to Wuhan.

Jan. 27: In Taiwan, the National Health Insurance Administration (NHIA) and the National Immigration Agency integrate patients’ past 14-day travel history with their NHI identification card data from the NHIA; this is accomplished in one day, Wang reports, and allows the medical system to know crucial information about each patient. Taiwan citizens’ household registration system and the foreigners’ entry card allow the government to track individuals at high risk because of recent travel history in affected areas. Those identified as high risk (under home quarantine) are monitored electronically through their mobile phones.

Jan. 27: Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux asks the first question in the House of Commons about COVID-19 after a second case was reported in Canada: “How can Canadians be assured that this spread is being properly contained?”

“The risk to Canadians remains low. Our systems continue to work extremely closely together,” Hajdu replies.

Jan. 28: In Taiwan, all of China (except Hong Kong and Macau) is given Level 3 travel alert status, meaning all incoming travellers go into mandatory quarantine.

Jan. 29: Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer,on Twitter: “I am concerned about the growing number of reports of racism and stigmatizing comments on social media directed to people of Chinese and Asian descent related to 2019-nCoV coronavirus… Racism, discrimination and stigmatizing language are unacceptable and very hurtful… Everyone has a part to play in preventing the spread of the virus. The Chinese community and all travellers from affected areas are a key part of these efforts….Racism, discrimination and stigmatizing language are unacceptable and very hurtful. These actions create a divide of Us Vs Them. Canada is a country built on the deep-rooted values of respect, diversity and inclusion.”

Jan. 29: Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the WHO, praises the Chinese response: “I was struck by the determination of Chinese leadership and its people to end the new coronavirus outbreak. They are suffering the most. Their lives & economy are bearing the brunt of the outbreak as they make sacrifices to contain it. China needs the world’s solidarity & support.”

Jan. 29: MP Jeneroux continues to press in the House of Commons, with three cases now in Canada: “Other nations are stopping flights in and out of China and introducing more rigorous screening processes. Is the Prime Minister satisfied with the actions of his government?”

Trudeau replies: “I can reassure Canadians that the health risk to Canadians continues to be low. We are taking all necessary precautions to prevent the spread of infection… Preventative measures are in place in airports in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, and we continue to co-ordinate with the WHO, with our international partners, to ensure that we are doing everything necessary to keep Canadians safe.”

Jan. 29: Liberal MP Marcus Powlowski, a doctor from Thunder Bay, Ont., questions Dr. Theresa Tam at the Parliamentary Health Committee: “The BBC was reporting today that their ministry of health was asking all people coming from China to voluntarily self-isolate for two weeks upon returning to the country, I think because the idea is that it got out of Wuhan. When you look at the numbers and what’s happening in China, it’s not isolated to Wuhan. It would seem to me to be a fairly feasible thing for us to do, and a precautionary thing, to have anyone coming from China self-isolate for two weeks. Have you considered making that recommendation, potentially under the Quarantine Act? I don’t know if there’s a means to enforce that.”

Tam replies, defending the policy of voluntary self-isolation of only those travellers showing clear symptoms: “Right now, we have protocols in place, together with the provinces and territories, on isolating cases. Certainly, doing rigorous contact tracing and monitoring is the key to preventing any spread from a case in Canada. That, I think, is of primary importance. For other completely asymptomatic people, currently there’s no evidence that we should be quarantining them.”

Tam stresses the need to work to have affected communities work with everyone else. “Otherwise, they’ll be stigmatized. They will be asked to take measures beyond what is currently the public health evidence. It is a matter of balance when you’re restricting someone’s freedom, essentially, to move about in the community after return. I think that is not something that we would take lightly.”

Powlowski continues: “The New York Times are reporting that they think the disease is communicable during the incubation period, meaning that when people are asymptomatic it can be transmitted… Britain has already taken action in terms of voluntary co-ordination. It would seem to me to be something that maybe we ought to consider. I don’t know how drastic that is.”

Tam says that Canada was working on this with the WHO. “They know they have to get to the bottom of this, but we do know that even people with mild symptoms don’t transmit very readily. Could they? It’s possible, but that’s not what drives an actual epidemic … I think we have to be reasonable in our public measures and just balance out the risks and benefits. In terms of the impacts, they are not simply health impacts, but psychological and other health impacts, as well as non-health impacts, those being societal and economic as well.”

Jan. 29: Conservative MP Pierre Paul-Hus asks for a quarantine on travellers from affected areas. “People are coming into the country without symptoms, and going back to their homes. You say that the provinces are in charge of screening, as they see fit. Can you be a little clearer about that? With an event like this, I wonder whether the Government of Canada has stricter authority than the provinces.”

Tam says: “As travellers enter the three international airports, the information is provided in English and French but also in simplified Chinese. The kiosks themselves have 13 languages, and then the handouts we are providing have French, English and simplified Chinese. The handouts not only talk about the symptoms and what people should do but also suggest calling ahead to your health provider before you present yourself to an emergency room or the ambulance service. There are numbers at the back of that form for each jurisdiction so that people know whom to call should they experience symptoms. That’s to ensure they do not walk into a clinic or hospital and contaminate the environment. All three cases we’ve had so far have entered the health system in a very safe way in which all infection prevention precautions have been undertaken.”

She adds: “As I have always said, the epidemic of fear could be more difficult to control than the epidemic itself.”

Tam downplays risk to Canada: “Right now, the cases are in China. Very few are exported. Yes, there’s human-to-human transmission, but those are generally for close contacts. With regard to the severity of illness, there are some severe cases, but the deaths have occurred in older people with underlying medical conditions. With all of that pulled together, for the general public who have not been to China, the risk is low in Canada.”

If someone did have close contact, protocols were in place, she says: “The expectation for any contacts is that they will be actively monitored for 14 days. That is the longest incubation period that is being observed. Local public health will monitor the contacts, and doing that generally involves public health having some contact every day with the individuals who have been identified.

“We do know that asymptomatic people are not the key driver of epidemics. That is very important to understand.”

On the issue of travel bans, Tam says she does not support them: “Right now, let’s say, WHO does not recommend travel bans, and any measures that a country is to take must not be out of proportion to the risk and must not inappropriately impact travel and trade. We are a signatory to the international health regulations and we’ll be called to account if we do anything different.”

Jan. 29: Conservative MP Len Webber asks if other countries had put in travel bans.

Dr. Tam, a special advisor to the WHO, mentions some regional bans, but she does not specifically mention Taiwan’s ever more strict bans: “Not countries, but I think there are three areas. I believe the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, for example, has put on a sort of block, but I believe there are three jurisdictions.”

She says the WHO’s focus is not on a country like Canada. “Right now, the World Health Organization is particularly worried about countries without capacities, particularly in the African region. I think the assessment of WHO as to whether it considers this a public health emergency of international concern isn’t necessarily focusing on countries that have capacities like Canada’s. They have to look at the whole world, including countries that don’t have the necessary capacity to prepare… We are of course a lot better than some of the other countries, which I think collaboratively, globally, we have to support, because a global containment strategy only works if every single country is part of it and there’s a cohesion in how we respond.”

Dr. Tam praises the Chinese response: “What we have seen, given my close communication with WHO, is how impressed they are by the work of China. The astoundingly rapid way in which they tried to get a handle on what is causing the outbreak, and giving the world the sequence of the virus, was very helpful. They’ve been providing information about cases, which is extremely helpful. You’ve seen the incredibly extraordinary measures that China has put in place to try to contain this within its borders. Even if this virus is capable of transmission from human to human, as I said, 99% of the cases are in China. Not that many—like 1%—are outside, so they are really trying very hard, and I think we have to be very supportive of the efforts.”

Dr. Tam expresses full support for the WHO: “For any global epidemic situation, international collaboration is key. Having the international health regulations and everyone sort of working under that umbrella, and having WHO’s leadership, is very important. They’ve strengthened a lot of that.”

Dr. Tam talks about importance of detecting imported cases. “The key to detecting an imported case is at that first encounter with the health system, taking the travel history and doing the regular routine infection prevention control. I think hospitals have learned that this is really important and have raised their capacity to do that.”

Dr. Tam says local health officials are tracking cases. “Right across Canada the system is so alerted that our local jurisdictions are investigating a number of people. They’re regularly assessing people who have returned from China. Anyone who then fits the case definition doesn’t have to wait for a test or for a diagnosis. They are immediately put under isolation so you don’t have to wait for the test. They are going to be managed clinically, and then for the lab test, many provinces can actually do at least the first step.”

Jan 29: At health committee, NDP MP Don Davies from Vancouver asks why there is not thermometer testing done at airports. He points to a report done years earlier on the 2003 SARS outbreak, which Tam had co-authored, which found: “In spite of intensive screening, no SARS cases were detected. SARS has an extremely low prevalence, and the positive predictive value of screening is essentially zero.”

Tam then spells out her philosophy, with the focus on the main line of defence being a country’s hospitals, not its borders: “This is a virus. It can cross borders. This is a layer of a multi-layered response. The most important layer, of course, is the initial entry into the health system. We’ve talked a bit about that. At the actual international border, I see it as a great opportunity to absolutely make someone aware of what to do if they’re sick after entry.  In that paper, what I recommended was that…. This is a moment in time; someone is paying attention as they’re crossing the border. You can give them the information they need in that moment of education as to what they should do if they get sick. In that paper, what I did not find effective were thermal scanners (with SARS outbreak). That was a lot … I think we scanned 6.3 million people, both on entry and exit, and couldn’t pick up a case, for a very specific reason, which was that in the incubation period people can be asymptomatic. Also, for other reasons, that was just not … On that predictive value, if it’s rare, you actually don’t expect a case. It’s actually not very effective. That’s the thermal scanning bit, not the education bit.”

Tam does not see great risk for Canada, she says: “Canada’s risk is much, much lower than that of many countries. It’s going to be rare, but we are expecting cases. It doesn’t matter how few those cases are. We are preparing the whole country in the event that you might pick up a rare case. That actually is what we’re doing right now, preparing. It is going to be rare, but you’re going to have some.”

Jan. 30: WHO declares a global health emergency. In China, the virus has infected nearly 8,000 and killed at least 170. There are now 98 cases in 18 other countries.

Jan. 30: The WHO’s Ghebreyesus tweets in support of the WHO’s open borders policy: “This is the time for facts, not fear. This is the time for science, not rumours. This is the time for solidarity, not stigma.”

Jan. 30. In Taiwan, Wang reports, four million masks are produced daily by local manufacturers. Of the masks produced, 1.4 million each day are allotted to hospitals and medical workers, with remaining 2.6 million for consumer sales. Mask prices are currently fixed at NT$8 apiece (USD $0.27). Taiwan’s High Prosecutors Office starts a nationwide campaign to stop profiteering by any seller raising prices on disease prevention products; penalty is one to seven years in jail and a fine of up to NT$5 million (US$167,000).

Jan. 30: A Change.org petition starts calling for Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus of the WHO to resign.

Jan. 31:The WHO’s Ghebreyesus tweets: “WHO continues to have confidence in China’s capacity to control the outbreak. We would’ve seen many more #2019nCoV cases outside China by now, & probably deaths, if it were not for the government’s efforts & the progress they’ve made to protect their own people & the world.”

Jan. 31: In the House of Commons, the NDP’s Davies notes the WHO has just declared COVID-19 a world health emergency. “One of the chief reasons for this move is they are concerned that this virus will spread to countries that are not prepared to deal with it, a serious state of affairs that increases the risk for all nations.”

Health minister Hajdu says: “We are so fortunate to have Dr. Tam as our Chief Public Health Officer, who is an expert adviser to this very committee. We have been following the World Health Organization recommendations since we noticed the cluster in late December. We will be closely reviewing the recommendations. I will mention, though, that some of them really do speak to the need to support weaker countries that do not have the same integrated systems that Canada has and to preventing the misinformation that is leading to racism and stigmatization of so many Chinese Canadians and other people of Chinese descent around the world.”

Jan. 31: The NDP’s Davies asks in Health Committee: “So far, we’ve been focused on people coming from Hubei province. Now, with the possibility that this virus is going to other countries that may not have the same vigilance — and I think there’s been quite a consensus that China has done a very good job of containing this — how do we respond to passengers who are perhaps coming from countries that may not have the same rigorous standards to deal with this? How has that affected our border entry controls and how we might be dealing with that?”

Paul MacKinnon, executive vice-president of the Canada Border Services Agency replies to Davies: “Our officers are trained from the moment they join (the agency) to do this very work on a daily basis, so in some sense, they rely on their standard operating procedure to always be checking for individuals who may be arriving at Canadian airports showing signs of illness. Certainly we are more focused on the questioning we have about whether they are coming from Hubei province. That questioning is working well for us at this point.”

Jan. 31: Liberal MP Powlowski asks of MacKinnon: “You seem to be gaining all of your identifying of passengers — asking questions, following them up — specifically with people from Wuhan or Hubei province. I would question why you’re limiting it to this group rather than all of China.” He notes the hundreds of other confirmed cases in other parts of China.

Davies asks if border guards had a list of the then 24 countries where the virus had spread.

Mackinnon says, “At the border we do not have such a list.”

(Sidebar: I apologise for the length of this but it is very likely that this report will be scrubbed. Please do take screen-shots before that happens.)

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3. The novel coronavirus disease, COVID-19, has now killed more Canadians than SARS.

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4.      Ontario health officials reported 151 new confirmed coronavirus cases in the province on    Saturday, bringing the total number of active cases to 1,117. The provincial death toll rose by one, to 19.

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5.   Cases of the novel coronavirus disease, known as COVID-19, have climbed to 2,498 in Quebec on Saturday — an increase of 477 since Friday — and the number of deaths has climbed by four to 22.

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6.       Record low prices for oilsands crude could result up to 20 per cent of Canada’s thermal bitumen production being shut down over the next few months, according to analyst Matt Murphy of Tudor Pickering Holt & Co.

That would equate to about 340,000 barrels per day of the 1.7 million bpd produced by projects that use steam to loosen the heavy, sticky oil and allow it to be pumped from wells in northern Alberta, he said.

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7.  

The deficit projection of $112.7 billion would hike Canada’s net debt as a percentage of GDP to  38 per cent, according to the PBO estimates. Giroux sees the figure as highly manageable, and far below the deficits of the early 1990s that reached 66 per cent of GDP. But the increased debt-to-GDP ratio still blows away a key fiscal anchor often cited by the Liberal government as a sign of its fiscal prudence, and is certain to make the climb back to surplus all the more difficult.

“We still have the firepower,” Giroux said. “It is manageable as long as this doesn’t lead to structural and permanent deficits of this magnitude.”

The Liberal government had initially promised in 2015 to run a deficit of $10 billion, partly to fund a massive infrastructure program to boost the economy, which it promised to bring back to surplus by 2019. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has since abandoned the promise to return to balance.

Also in its report on Friday, the PBO forecast unemployment reaching 15 per cent, substantially higher than the near-historic lows Ottawa had enjoyed before the pandemic spread of the virus.

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8.

While most Canadians are heeding the advice of government and public health officials asking them to stay home and not travel, especially if they are feeling ill, additional measures are needed to stop the spread of the virus within Canada, Trudeau said.

“We are giving further tools to airlines and rail companies to ensure that anyone exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms does not travel,” he said from outside his home at Rideau Cottage.

(Sidebar: Ahem ...)

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9.

The Canadian Armed Forces is being put on a war footing as it prepares to be thrown into the COVID-19 crisis.

In an unprecedented five-page letter to the troops, defence chief Gen. Jonathan Vance says military planners are busy identifying who will be asked to respond if and when the call for military assistance arrives.

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10.

Dr. Howard Njoo says the fight is far from over, that it could include a second wave, and that we are certainly in it “for the long haul.”

“It’s definitely months. Many months,” Njoo estimated Friday as the number of novel coronavirus cases in Canada surged to 4,757, including 55 deaths.

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11. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he plans to continue working from home, even though his required 14-day self-isolation period is up, on the advice of doctors.