Sunday, February 16, 2020

Sunday Post





It's all very well and good to point out Justin's many foibles - his arrogance, his vanity, his utter stupidity, his laziness - and during a time when unelected (and no doubt foreign-funded) mouthpieces who claim to represent a group of people who do not feel as they do, who are glad to get whatever brainless support they can and certainly don't represent anything that resembles a nation but it one should be reminded that Canadians voted for this cretin twice and -if they did have any issue with his vile treatment of women, his love for all dictatorships, his several gaffes, his incompetence - said and did nothing about him. Canada stands in the shadow of other countries that do oppose their leaders, even if it means imprisonment, torture and death (ie - Hong Kong). Canadians, lazy in every respect, are getting in spades the government that represents them - vain, lazy, appeasing to bullies and ruinous to the personal and collective wealth of its citizens.

By summer, the current outrages will have been forgotten for a can of beer and a hot dog.


Screw you, Maritimes. Freeze in the dark.

Elections have consequences:

Businesses and homes across Atlantic Canada are days away from running out of propane as a result of anti-pipeline protests that have cut off rail links across Canada.

Ian Wilson, president of Halifax-based Wilson Fuel, said his company is rationing propane by partially filling customers' tanks.

"If we just filled everybody's tank on delivery, we'd be looking at outages today," he said in an interview Friday.

"This isn't just an inconvenience. This is a serious problem. And when you're talking about what people use for heating in a Canadian winter, that's a public health and safety issue."

Greg McCamus, president of Ontario-based Superior Propane, said Atlantic Canada and Quebec remain highly dependent on rail service to maintain propane supplies.

"We don't want to create panic with people ... but this will evolve pretty quickly when logistics and supply get out of sync," he said in an interview. "It will take a while for it to reconstitute itself."

Isn't Justin going to run back from the Caribbean and get a pipeline (albeit controversial) constructed just for you? He did it for the Africans and that oh-so-important UN seat. After all the support you gladly gave him in the 2019 election, it's like he's forgotten all about you.

If only he could direct the RCMP to act.

Oh, wait! He can!





 

**
Protesters blocked off rail lines just north of Toronto on Saturday in solidarity with members of the Wet’suwet’en Nation.

A news release from a group calling itself Toronto Wet’suwet’en Solidarity said the protest began at 10 a.m. and was aimed at stopping rail traffic leaving MacMillan Yard in Vaughan.

**
Opponents of a pipeline who support the Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs say they have returned to camps along a road leading to a work site outside Houston, B.C.

Jen Wickham, a member of the First Nation's Gidimt'en clan, says they went back to the camps where 28 people were arrested when the RCMP enforced an injunction this month.

She says those at the camps are not blocking workers from Coastal GasLink from using the road or accessing the work site, and workers have been freely moving through.

Coastal GasLink and the RCMP did not immediately respond to requests for comment.




Justin knows how and when to bow and that appeals to Canadians:

A month after 57 Canadians were killed by the Iranian regime, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been pictured greeting Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif with a smile—and bowing.




While Iran has released a video excerpt of its foreign minister meeting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Canadian officials won't say whether they have any recordings of their own of the politically sensitive interaction.

Trudeau has been criticized for his demeanour in the video and photos, also released by Iran, of the meeting as Canada attempts to get answers and compensation for the families of 57 Canadians killed when Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner in January. 

The Iranian video shows a smiling Trudeau grasping Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's hand with both of his.
 
Yes, we wouldn't want something incriminating, would we? Canadians wouldn't care but the Americans would.

**

So there you have it. A senior Huawei official has acknowledged that network access without operator permission is technically possible, as Huawei has gone from saying “it cannot happen” to “it can happen but someone would notice it.””

**
As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ponders whether or not to allow Huawei onto Canada’s 5G network, more and more national security experts and lawmakers are warning the Liberals about the company.


Alright, Canada let's see some riots over this.




One of Japan's top academics says China is trying to create its own new world order — and leading Western democracies, Canada included, have started to look at their relationship with the rising superpower through that lens.


This China:
Officials from two coronavirus-stricken cities in southern China have been authorized to confiscate private property in an effort to combat the outbreak that has pushed the country’s health system to its limits.

According to a notice posted on Feb. 11, city and district-level authorities in Guangzhou city can, “when necessary,” “temporarily expropriate” houses, venues, vehicles, and other resources from companies or individuals.

(Sidebar: why does that sound familiar?)




Wow. The world totally has a handle on this coronavirus:


Not so fast: 

An elderly Quebecois couple from Gatineau, Que., aboard the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, their daughter said on Saturday.

** 

More cases:
An American woman who disembarked from a cruise ship in Cambodia last week has tested positive twice for the coronavirus since flying on to Malaysia, officials in that country said on Sunday.

Officials also said that more than 140 other passengers from the ship, the Westerdam — which Cambodia allowed to dock after five other countries turned it away over concerns about the coronavirus — had flown from Cambodia to the airport in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s capital, and that all but eight had been allowed to continue to their destinations, including airports in the United States, the Netherlands and Australia.

Six of the passengers were in Malaysia under surveillance awaiting results of coronavirus tests, officials said.

**
Taiwan reported its first death from the new coronavirus Sunday, as the death toll from the outbreak rose to 1,665 inside mainland China.

A 61-year-old man from central Taiwan with underlying health problems but no recent overseas travel history died in hospital on Saturday after testing positive for the virus, officials confirmed.

It is the fifth recorded death outside mainland China — previous victims were in the Philippines, Hong Kong, Japan, and France.


The same mouthpieces that have been far-removed from this crisis are too busy misdirecting others or praising WHO that once praised North Korea's healthcare system -

(Sidebar: this North Korea.)

are forgetting some rather important facts:

Transmission route is either contact or inhalation (of real concern, because more flu like than cold like—even with annual flu shots influenza R0 remains about 2 because of flu vaccine issues covered in the previous post). Based on SARS and influenza, this means the likely Wuhan R0 is 3ish, so very contagious. The significant inhalation route is now shown by both the Diamond Princess cruise ship experiment (more below) and by the fact that ordinary surgical masks proved ineffective in the Wuhan hospital setting (JAMA, previous post).

Incubation period is 7-10 days from initial infection. The good news is that the 14-day quarantine adopted pretty much universally last week should therefore be effective (with a margin of safety) at Wuhan containment. But in most of Southeast Asia outside China, Japan, and Singapore, or in Africa should Wuhan spread there, 14-day quarantine will be difficult or impossible to maintain so the possibility of a pandemic remains.

The bad news is that Wuhan IS transmissible during some later part of the symptomless incubation period. The definitive clinical proof (there was comment debate about the reliability of previous post evidence from Japan and Germany) is an age 50’s UK male who attended an about 100 person sales conference in Singapore 1/20-1/22 2020. A single individual from Wuhan also attended this conference and was–per Singapore Wuhan containment policies– symptomless on arrival (no fever, no cough). That either symptomless or very early symptomatic individual transmitted Wuhan to the UK citizen in Singapore. The UK individual then flew to France for a 4-day family ski vacation 1/24-1/28 at Le Contamines-Montjoie. During the 4-day vacation the UK male remained symptomless (entire incubation time Singapore plus France at most 8 days) but transmitted Wuhan to 11 other individuals, 5 later diagnosed in UK (family and friends), 5 later diagnosed in France, and 1 later diagnosed in Spain. Clearly this case is NOT family close proximity contact transmission. This case may be a “super spreader” outlier, BUT it means a symptomless R0 as high as 11 cannot be ruled out, with a symptomless transmission period of several days. By comparison, the R0 for measles (absent vaccination) is 12-18, so a horrific Wuhan symptomless R0 of 11 is within the realm of actual possibility.

This is VERY bad news, as the formal CDC guidance on URI’s is that transmission risk is highest with peak symptoms (equating to peak virion shedding)–as was the case with SARS. Not so with Wuhan, reinforcing the public health necessity of strict 14-day quarantine.

Disease progression is standard common cold symptoms for 7-10 days with one exception–used since yesterday for clinical diagnosis in Hubei Province, as both the Chinese and the experimental CDC US test kits are showing significant problems with a high rate of false negatives. Common colds from over 120 distinct serotypes from all three viral families (RNA naked Rhino, RNA enveloped Corona, and DNA enveloped Adeno) all evidence the same three symptoms: runny nose, sore throat, and cough. Influenza adds two: fever and muscle ache. Wuhan clinically shows four: runny nose, sore throat, cough, AND fever—but NOT muscle ache. As of today, Hubei switched to clinical diagnosis and today’s ‘new’ diagnosed Wuhan cases were 14840. Yesterday, using only test kits, it was 1638. This is not a leap in cases; it is a leap in diagnostics.

Unfortunately, this new fact means Wuhan has previously (as suspected but now proven) been severely under diagnosed and reported. And that unfortunately means the 1300 attributed deaths were also severely underreported. More on presently inferable mortality comes in a following section.
Wuhan then makes a now well-established clinical bifurcation. In 75-80% of cases, by symptom day 10 there is a normal ‘corona cold’ recovery lasting a few days. (In my own case last week, 3 recovery days in total, days 9-12 from symptom onset.)

In 20-25% of cases, by symptom day 10 Wuhan progresses to lower respiratory tract pneumonia, where death may occur with or without ICU intervention. The percentage of these deep pneumonias that are viral as opposed to a secondary bacteria infection is not known, but the NEJM clinical case report from Washington State discussed in the following paragraph strongly suggests viral (like SARS), not secondary bacterial treatable with antibiotics.

But I guess they know what they are doing.






(Merci and paws up)


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