On the Korean Peninsula

As thick as thieves:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un congratulated Chinese President Xi Jinping on his 65th birthday in a message Friday amid signs that the relationship between the allies is mending fast. 

North Korean state TV said that Kim sent a birthday message and flowers to Xi. "The continuous and meaningful meetings with comrade Xi Jinping strengthened the special camaraderie and trust and played an important role in advancing bilateral ties according to the latest trends," Kim was quoted as writing. 

"Let us advance the bilateral friendship forged in blood so that it will be unshakable by political change and any other challenge." 

For without China, there would be no North Korea.


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Instead, the agreement merely reaffirmed the terms of a joint declaration by Kim and President Moon Jae-in after their summit in April, and only holds Kim to working "towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," which could mean anything. In short, it represents no progress and achieves nothing. Already, when faced with criticism over the vagueness of the inter-Korean declaration, Cheong Wa Dae officials said specific agreements would be made between the U.S. and North Korea. That is what the public believed, and that is why they have been let down. Over the last few months, Trump has made increasingly bombastic vows to scrap North Korea's nuclear weapons as soon as possible, but now there is no deadline to be found anywhere, and instead Trump is talking about real estate development on North Korea's coast. 

Worse, the denuclearization pledge was listed third on a list of four bullet points, behind promises to improve U.S.-North Korea relations and establish a peace framework on the Korean peninsula.

One should expect to see this all unravel soon.

In the mean time, South Korea and the US have given part of what North Korea wanted:

South Korea and the U.S. have agreed to suspend the large-scale military drills while the U.S.-North Korea talks go on, an unnamed source said Sunday.

The two sides will cancel the Ulchi Freedom Guardian drills, which used to be held in August, but could immediately resume them if North Korea cancels talks or reneges on its denuclearization commitment, the source added.

The announcement is expected this week. 

"Holding back the 'war games' during the negotiations was my request because they are VERY EXPENSIVE and set a bad light during a good faith negotiation," U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Sunday. "Also, quite provocative. Can start up immediately if talks break down, which I hope will not happen!"

But smaller routine training will continue, according to the source.

But one aspect of this alleged denuclearisation was not covered during the talks, one that, no doubt, weighs heavily on the minds of South Koreans, as does the cost of reunification:

The direct costs alone of the dismantling of North Korea's nuclear weapons and facilities are estimated in the billions of dollars North Korea will also demand compensation and economic rewards after prolonged international sanctions, and think tanks estimate it will cost hundreds of billions of dollars over the next 10 to 20 years to rebuild the dilapidated country. Fortune magazine puts the amount at US$2 trillion over the next decade.

Supposing North Korea completely scraps all of its nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, South Korea may not only have to provide compensation but also offer humanitarian aid and money to rebuild the North's moribund economy. If the North enters a path of reforms and market-opening, there would be no reason for South Korea to withhold such aid, but Trump seemed to be suggesting that South Korea and China pick up the entire tab.

But it is the U.S. and North Korea that are engaged in denuclearization talks. South Korea is merely eavesdropping on the sidelines. "And, look, we're very far away," Trump said. "We are very far away. 

Those places are very close. It's their neighborhood. We're thousands -- we're 6,000 miles away." Yet the U.S. is a stakeholder in the nuclear threat and never tires of pointing out that it is an "existential" one to America. Then why does physical proximity suddenly matter when it comes to paying up? Not many South Korean will be happy if the U.S. does all the negotiating and the South ends up covering the astronomical cost.

 

Such are the wages of losing a war and letting it carry on.