On the Korean Peninsula

How can this go wrong?:

North Korea leader Kim Jong Un said his country’s hard-won nuclear weapons were a solid security guarantee and a “reliable, effective” deterrent that could prevent a second Korean War, state media reported Tuesday.

Kim’s comments before war veterans marking the 67th anniversary of the end of the 1950-53 Korean War again show he has no intention of abandoning his weapons as prospects dim for resuming diplomacy with the United States.

Though many are quick to point out how Trump burned the toast on this, consider that the current South Korean government's involvement is much more pernicious:

It never fails to amaze me how senior officials and nominees in the Moon administration can’t be bothered read the sanctions or obtain competent legal advice before advancing their grand plans to circumvent them. For whatever reason—the fear of a latent threat, Stockholm Syndrome, ethnonationalist affinity, political opportunism, financial greed, or ideological sympathy—Moon Jae-in’s cabinet is desperate to break sanctions designed to disarm a psychopath who killed his own half-brother, along with countless North Koreans (and now, Syrians), and who wants better ways to kill more of us. What Moon wants to bail Kim out from is precisely the pressure that it’s U.S. policy to create, to persuade Kim to choose between his weapons of mass destruction and the survival of a regime that is a scourge on its subjects. The U.S. and South Korea may be nominal allies, but their North Korea policies are in direct conflict.

As Donald Trump has proven in his usual fashion—though inadvertence and ineptitude—there is no win-win between the United States and North Korea. In our zero-sum struggle to slow a global metastasis of proliferation, Moon has chosen sides, and we are not the side he has chosen. Do you want to ask why the alliance between the United States and South Korea is falling apart? There’s a lot you could blame Trump for. Just don’t forget to blame Lee In-young, and his boss, too.

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You can blame Trump for plenty, including the decline of our alliance with Korea. But you can’t blame him for Im Jong-seok, Lee In-young, and the rest of the Chondaehyop Alumni Association who are now in a perfect position to paralyze and undermine our North Korea policy and consequently, to endanger our own national security. But yes, pity poor Moon Jae-in. How did all these pro-North Korean, anti-American extremists, ex-terrorists, and convicted felons get themselves appointed to his cabinet? When the autopsy of the alliance is written, we can devote many chapters to Trump’s missteps, and to his gratuitous slights and outrages against a proud people. Just don’t forget to explain the futility of any American president—be it Trump, Clinton, or Biden—building an alliance with any government run by the Chondaehyop Alumni Association.

Also:

An official at the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association told the Nikkei that that “even if Japanese restrictions revert to what they were before July 2019, companies that have decided to use something else are not going to switch back.” Kim Sang-jo, Moon's chief policy secretary, crowed that “one day, our materials industry will have developed and we'll be able to say, 'Thank you Mr. Abe!'”

Every study of sanctions warns that target governments will respond by trying to reduce dependence and vulnerability. The Japanese government must recalculate the costs and benefits of such actions because that natural inclination to remove pressure points undermines the strategy of Japan’s most successful businesses. Nothing would seem to be further from promoting Japan’s real national security.

(Kamsahamnida)