Russia, knowing it can get away with what it likes, including telling a sovereign nation what organisations it can or cannot join and taking over said nation on the blessing of a formerly powerful world policeman, waits for an opportunity to strike:
A number of recent articles have suggested that the costs of a potential invasion are too high, or that the purpose of a Russian military operation in Ukraine would be to occupy territory. A better explanation of Moscow’s current actions is that they are part of a compellence campaign. If Moscow cannot convince the United States to agree to some of its demands and force Ukraine to make concessions, it may view military force as its last resort to change what it considers an unacceptable status quo.
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Russia wants Nato to remove all of its forces from Bulgaria, Romania and other ex-communist states in eastern Europe that joined the alliance after 1997, the foreign ministry said on Friday, underlining Moscow’s hardline position ahead of security talks with the US in Geneva.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said in a written Q&A on the ministry’s website that Russia’s demands included “withdrawing foreign forces, equipment, and armaments and making other steps to return to the condition as of 1997”, when Nato began admitting former Warsaw Pact countries.
“That includes Bulgaria and Romania,” Lavrov said, adding that Russia’s demand was “core” and “deliberately worded as clearly as possible so as not to allow any dual interpretations”.
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A failure to deter Russia and China — deterrence, especially military pre-positioning near the area under threat, is the least costly way to avoid war — would deal a potentially crushing blow to the post-World War II liberal international order. That system, whose principles and norms — including adherence to the rule of law, respect for human rights and the promotion of liberal democracy, as well as preserving the sanctity of territorial sovereignty and existing boundaries — has regulated the conduct of international relations for nearly 80 years.
Analysts warn that the crisis in Ukraine, which China presumably is closely watching, may represent a turning point in world politics. An invasion of Ukraine would open the door for Russia to extend its military tentacles to countries in the Baltics and Eastern Europe. It could also embolden China to invade Taiwan, which would allow Beijing to set its sights on economic powerhouses Japan and South Korea, as well as on other regional allies of the United States.
Observers worry that Russia and China — so-called revisionist authoritarian powers seeking to establish a post-Western global order that extols autocracy over democracy — may leverage control over Ukraine and Taiwan to carve out exclusive spheres of influence in their respective parts of the globe.
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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has hit back at comments made by his US counterpart Joe Biden about a "minor incursion" by Russia into his country.
Mr Biden had suggested that a "minor" attack might bring a weaker response from the US and its allies.
But Mr Zelensky tweeted: "There are no minor incursions. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones."
Russia has some 100,000 troops near the border but denies planning an invasion.
President Vladimir Putin has made a series of demands to the West, insisting Ukraine should never be allowed to join Nato and that the defensive alliance abandons military activity in eastern Europe.
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Germany is preventing fellow NATO member Estonia from providing Ukraine with military support by declining to offer export permits for weapons of German origin, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
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I'm sure it's nothing to be concerned with:
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Thursday said he spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin about cooperation between the two countries.
The call came a week after Russia’s chief negotiator in talks with the U.S. on tensions over Ukraine said he would “neither confirm nor exclude” the possibility of Russia sending military assets to Cuba and Venezuela if the U.S. and its allies don’t curtail their military activities on Russia’s doorstep.
Maduro’s office in a statement said Putin “expressed all his multidimensional support and backing for the defense of the sovereignty and in pursuit of the development of” the South American country. The statement said the presidents spoke of the increase in commerce between both countries, the launch of air service between Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, and Moscow, and Russia’s supply of COVID-19 vaccines to Venezuelans.
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